Bernstein Network Computational Neuroscience
  • Home
  • Network
    • The Bernstein Network
    • Bernstein Centers
      • Berlin
      • Freiburg
      • Göttingen
      • Munich
      • Tübingen
      • Heidelberg-Mannheim
    • Research Infrastructure
      • High Performance Simulation and Data Analysis
      • Research Data Management
      • Science Communication
      • Scientific Coordination
    • Awards and Initiatives
      • Valentin Braitenberg Award
      • Brains for Brains Young Researcher Award
      • Bernstein SmartSteps
    • Committees
    • Statutes
    • Membership
    • History
    • Donation
    • Contact
  • Newsroom
    • Newsroom
    • News
    • Meet the Scientist
    • Events
    • Calls
    • Media Coverage
    • Press
    • Network Publications
    • Bernstein Bulletin
  • Teaching and Research
    • Teaching and Research
    • Find a Scientist
    • Degree Programs
      • Master Programs
      • PhD Programs
    • Study and Training
      • Bernstein Student Workshop Series 2023
      • Online Learning
      • Advanced Courses
      • Internships and Master theses
    • Mission Statement
  • Career
    • Career
    • Job Pool
    • Join our team
  • Bernstein Conference
    • Bernstein Conference
    • Call for Satellite Workshops
    • General Information
      • Tentative Schedule
      • Past Conferences
    • FAQ
  • EN
  • DE
  • Search
  • Menu Menu
You are here: Home1 / Newsroom2 / News3 / “We could reach well below 1000 new infections/ d by end of May”
Göttingen – May 1, 2020

“We could reach well below 1000 new infections/ d by end of May”

Germany is looking for a way out of the Covid-19 epidemic. The Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, the Helmholtz Association, the Leibniz Association, and the Max-Planck-Gesellschaft have jointly published a statement outlining various paths through the corona epidemic based on model calculations. Viola Priesemann, who heads a research group at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, is co-author of this position paper.

V. Priesemann, © Joao Pinheiro Neto

/MPG, Hergersberg/ Priesemann’s team has calculated two scenarios of how the coronavirus will spread in the coming weeks. We talked to her about different strategies for overcoming the epidemic as well as the possible consequences of a renewed increase in new infections and how this could be averted.

Dr Priesemann, when can the restrictions set in place to contain the corona epidemic be relaxed?

Many people want the restrictions to be relaxed – but that would mean accepting that the infection rate and the number of new infections would rise again. We would probably have to make drastic restrictions again in a few weeks in order to dampen the second wave. So we would be right back where we were in mid-March. We therefore advocate taking advantage of the great opportunity we have at the moment. The number of new infections is lower than it has been for a long time. If we can reduce it to only a few hundred confirmed cases per day, we can trace the chains of infection and isolate the contacts of positively tested patients. The more we suppress infections, the faster we arrive at several hundred cases. We can then allow ourselves more freedom again.

How long will it take until the number of new infections per day drops to well below 1000 cases?

Thanks to the contact ban, we have reached a state in which the number of daily new infections has decreased quite rapidly. Instead of over 6,000 new infections, we are now at 1,000 to 2,000. In the last few weeks, the effective reproduction rate was significantly below 1. If things remain this way, we could reach a few hundred cases per day by the end of May.

Is it also possible to manage the epidemic if there are more new infections every day?

In principle, there are only two natural ends of an epidemic: either the virus will be eradicated or enough people will become immune. However, relying on some form of general immunity entails some risks. We still don’t know how long a person remains immune after a corona infection. And long-term immunity is necessary in order to decrease the spread. With these uncertainties about immunity, further spread is very risky. We also know very little about the possible after-effects of COVID-19.

But in Germany, hospitals been able to properly care for patients with severe Covid-19. And some have even announced reduced working hours…

This is only because the hospitals are working in a state of emergency and have postponed all elective operations in order to ensure enough beds in intensive care. Hospitals have stated that with normal operation in Germany, there would be considerably fewer intensive care beds available to care for additional COVID-19 patients. Suspected cases of COVID-19 must also be treated in isolation as a precaution. It is also essential that in the medium term, all non-COVID patients can return to the same condition as before the epidemic. It is not clear how many beds can be made available for COVID-19 patients without sacrificing some of the care provided for others.

So are the measures to contain the corona epidemic being eased prematurely?

In principle, restrictions can be relaxed if this does not lead to additional infections. Unfortunately, we don’t know what risks are involved with each individual relaxation. To gain insight into this, we should proceed carefully and gradually. If we relax all restrictions at once, we risk another wave of infection. It will also take two to three weeks before we see the effects of relaxation. In this time, there can be a considerable spread without us noticing it. We would thus risk gambling away the successes of the efforts made in recent weeks. We must therefore relax measures individually and in a targeted manner and closely observe how the relaxation affects new infections two to three weeks later. However, which measures should first be relaxed must be decided upon in an open discourse that includes all socially important aspects such as economic, social, and psychological effects.

One has the impression that there are always new goals in the containment of the epidemic. What do you think the goal must be?

When the number of infections was increasing exponentially, the short-term goal was clearly to stop the exponential spread. This has been achieved with great commitment. The daily number of new infections has clearly decreased since the beginning of April. At first glance, it appears that we have reached our goal. But that’s not the case. When deciding on a goal, we must realize that the virus will not simply disappear. We will likely be still dealing with it in the coming months or years. We therefore need a strategy that is viable in the long term. The only sustainable solution we see is to contain the virus as much as possible so that the remaining chains of infection can be traced and that possible new sources of infection can be identified as quickly as possible.

>> original interview

Further links

Website of the working group at MPI

> more

“We could reach well below 1000 new infections/ d by end of May”

6. August 2020/in /by Sean Kaltenbacher

Kontakt Aktuelles

Contact

Peter Hergersberg

Department of Communication
Administrative Headquarters of the Max Planck Society, München

+49 89 2108-1536
hergersberg@gv.mpg.de

Carolin Hoffrogge

Press Officer
Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen

+49 551 5176-668
presse@ds.mpg.de

Bernstein Netzwerk Computational Neuroscience Logo

Become a member
Statutes
Donation
Subscribe to Newsletter

 

Follow us on

Mastodon
© 2023 Bernstein Network Computational Neuroscience
  • Contact
  • Imprint
  • Privacy Policy
Scroll to top
Cookie-Zustimmung verwalten
We use cookies to optimize our website and our service.
Functional Always active
Der Zugriff oder die technische Speicherung ist unbedingt für den rechtmäßigen Zweck erforderlich, um die Nutzung eines bestimmten Dienstes zu ermöglichen, der vom Abonnenten oder Nutzer ausdrücklich angefordert wurde, oder für den alleinigen Zweck der Übertragung einer Nachricht über ein elektronisches Kommunikationsnetz.
Vorlieben
Die technische Speicherung oder der Zugriff ist für den rechtmäßigen Zweck der Speicherung von Voreinstellungen erforderlich, die nicht vom Abonnenten oder Nutzer beantragt wurden.
Statistics
Die technische Speicherung oder der Zugriff, der ausschließlich zu statistischen Zwecken erfolgt. Die technische Speicherung oder der Zugriff, der ausschließlich zu anonymen statistischen Zwecken verwendet wird. Ohne eine Aufforderung, die freiwillige Zustimmung Ihres Internetdienstanbieters oder zusätzliche Aufzeichnungen von Dritten können die zu diesem Zweck gespeicherten oder abgerufenen Informationen allein in der Regel nicht zu Ihrer Identifizierung verwendet werden.
Marketing
Die technische Speicherung oder der Zugriff ist erforderlich, um Nutzerprofile zu erstellen, um Werbung zu versenden oder um den Nutzer auf einer Website oder über mehrere Websites hinweg zu ähnlichen Marketingzwecken zu verfolgen.
Manage options Manage services Manage vendors Read more about these purposes
Settings
{title} {title} {title}